FED rate probabilities

Observed: Aug 26, 2026

Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)

Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026

Most likely3.50–3.75%60.4%Implied rate 3.72%

Probabilities by meeting

Meeting3.25–3.50%3.50–3.75%3.75–4.00%4.00–4.25%Implied rate
Sep 16, 2026·60.439.6·3.72%
Oct 28, 2026·45.744.79.73.79%
Dec 9, 2026·27.645.123.53.86%
Jan 27, 2027·22.541.927.53.89%
Mar 17, 20270.823.141.426.83.88%
Apr 28, 20270.515.234.932.03.92%
Jun 9, 20270.413.732.932.33.93%
Jul 28, 20270.714.232.931.93.93%
Sep 15, 20272.316.432.830.03.90%
Oct 27, 20272.215.331.530.23.91%
Dec 8, 20273.216.631.429.03.89%

③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting

Implied rate path

3.58%3.83%4.08%3.72Sep 163.79Oct 283.86Dec 93.89Jan 273.88Mar 173.92Apr 283.93Jun 93.93Jul 283.90Sep 153.91Oct 273.89Dec 8

Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27

Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.