FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 8, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%60.4%Implied rate 3.78%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 39.6 | 60.4 | · | 3.78% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 29.1 | 54.9 | 16.1 | 3.84% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 14.3 | 41.7 | 35.8 | 3.93% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 10.8 | 35.1 | 37.2 | 3.95% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | · | 6.7 | 25.9 | 36.4 | 3.98% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | · | 5.7 | 23.0 | 34.9 | 3.99% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | · | 4.5 | 19.3 | 32.3 | 4.00% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | · | 4.2 | 18.5 | 31.6 | 4.00% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | · | 4.0 | 17.8 | 31.0 | 4.00% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | · | 4.0 | 17.6 | 30.8 | 4.00% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 1.8 | 10.2 | 23.7 | 29.5 | 3.94% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.