FED rate probabilities

Observed: Sep 8, 2026

Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)

Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026

Most likely3.75–4.00%60.4%Implied rate 3.78%

Probabilities by meeting

Meeting3.25–3.50%3.50–3.75%3.75–4.00%4.00–4.25%Implied rate
Sep 16, 2026·39.660.4·3.78%
Oct 28, 2026·29.154.916.13.84%
Dec 9, 2026·14.341.735.83.93%
Jan 27, 2027·10.835.137.23.95%
Mar 17, 2027·6.725.936.43.98%
Apr 28, 2027·5.723.034.93.99%
Jun 9, 2027·4.519.332.34.00%
Jul 28, 2027·4.218.531.64.00%
Sep 15, 2027·4.017.831.04.00%
Oct 27, 2027·4.017.630.84.00%
Dec 8, 20271.810.223.729.53.94%

③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting

Implied rate path

3.64%3.89%4.14%3.78Sep 163.84Oct 283.93Dec 93.95Jan 273.98Mar 173.99Apr 284.00Jun 94.00Jul 284.00Sep 154.00Oct 273.94Dec 8

Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26

Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.