FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 10, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%60.2%Implied rate 3.78%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 39.8 | 60.2 | · | 3.78% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 28.3 | 54.3 | 17.3 | 3.85% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 12.7 | 40.0 | 37.7 | 3.94% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 6.9 | 27.5 | 38.8 | 3.98% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 2.4 | 14.1 | 31.4 | 33.1 | 3.92% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 0.6 | 5.3 | 18.4 | 31.8 | 3.99% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 15.4 | 28.8 | 4.00% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 14.3 | 27.4 | 4.00% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 14.0 | 27.0 | 4.00% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 14.0 | 27.0 | 4.00% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 13.8 | 26.9 | 4.00% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.