FED rate probabilities
Observed: Aug 31, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%56.9%Implied rate 3.77%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 43.1 | 56.9 | · | 3.77% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 29.3 | 52.5 | 18.3 | 3.85% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 11.3 | 38.2 | 39.3 | 3.95% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 8.2 | 30.8 | 39.0 | 3.97% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 1.9 | 13.3 | 32.7 | 34.4 | 3.93% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 18.6 | 33.1 | 3.99% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 17.0 | 31.4 | 4.00% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 17.0 | 31.4 | 4.00% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 17.1 | 31.4 | 4.00% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 18.1 | 31.2 | 3.98% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 19.5 | 30.9 | 3.96% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.