FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 7, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%58.3%Implied rate 3.77%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 41.7 | 58.3 | · | 3.77% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 30.1 | 53.7 | 16.1 | 3.84% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 17.3 | 43.6 | 32.2 | 3.92% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 11.5 | 34.9 | 36.0 | 3.95% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 0.4 | 12.4 | 34.9 | 35.2 | 3.94% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 21.9 | 35.0 | 3.99% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 19.1 | 32.8 | 4.00% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 17.8 | 31.6 | 4.00% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 17.2 | 31.0 | 4.00% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 17.5 | 30.9 | 4.00% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 18.6 | 30.7 | 3.98% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.