FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 11, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%71.3%Implied rate 3.80%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 28.8 | 71.3 | · | 3.80% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 17.6 | 54.8 | 27.6 | 3.90% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | 4.4 | 26.8 | 48.1 | 4.01% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | 3.1 | 20.4 | 42.0 | 4.02% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 1.1 | 9.3 | 28.1 | 4.05% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 23.0 | 4.05% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 18.3 | 4.06% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 17.0 | 4.06% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 16.0 | 4.06% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 18.7 | 4.04% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 1.6 | 7.5 | 19.2 | 4.03% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.