FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 9, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%59.4%Implied rate 3.77%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 40.6 | 59.4 | · | 3.77% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 29.8 | 54.4 | 15.8 | 3.84% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 13.5 | 40.9 | 36.9 | 3.94% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 10.1 | 34.0 | 37.9 | 3.96% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 1.5 | 13.6 | 34.6 | 34.7 | 3.93% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 20.2 | 34.6 | 3.99% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 16.7 | 31.2 | 4.00% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 16.1 | 30.6 | 4.00% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 16.5 | 30.5 | 4.00% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 29.6 | 4.00% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 22.8 | 29.5 | 3.93% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.