FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 1, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%65.4%Implied rate 3.79%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 34.6 | 65.4 | · | 3.79% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 25.4 | 57.2 | 17.4 | 3.85% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 10.8 | 38.9 | 40.3 | 3.96% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 7.9 | 31.5 | 40.0 | 3.98% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 1.8 | 13.3 | 33.4 | 34.9 | 3.93% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 18.8 | 33.8 | 4.00% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 17.3 | 32.2 | 4.00% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 16.9 | 31.7 | 4.00% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 17.9 | 31.6 | 3.99% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 0.7 | 5.3 | 18.0 | 31.6 | 3.99% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 19.5 | 31.2 | 3.97% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.