FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 4, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%50.2%Implied rate 3.75%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 49.8 | 50.2 | · | 3.75% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 35.5 | 50.1 | 14.5 | 3.82% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 17.7 | 42.8 | 32.3 | 3.91% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 13.6 | 37.0 | 34.7 | 3.94% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | · | 7.7 | 26.9 | 35.7 | 3.98% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | · | 6.9 | 24.8 | 34.8 | 3.98% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | · | 5.6 | 21.4 | 32.8 | 3.99% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | · | 5.3 | 20.5 | 32.2 | 3.99% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | · | 5.4 | 20.6 | 32.2 | 3.99% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 20.8 | 32.0 | 3.98% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 0.8 | 7.3 | 22.0 | 31.4 | 3.97% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.