FED rate probabilities
Observed: Sep 3, 2026⚠ Some data missing (probabilities sum < 95%)
① Next meeting · Sep 16, 2026
Most likely3.75–4.00%62.3%Implied rate 3.78%
② Probabilities by meeting
| Meeting | 3.25–3.50% | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | Implied rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | · | 37.7 | 62.3 | · | 3.78% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | · | 27.2 | 55.5 | 17.2 | 3.85% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | · | 12.0 | 39.6 | 38.7 | 3.95% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | · | 7.4 | 29.2 | 39.1 | 3.98% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | · | 5.4 | 23.2 | 36.3 | 3.99% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | · | 4.3 | 19.5 | 33.6 | 4.00% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | · | 3.5 | 16.9 | 31.2 | 4.01% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | · | 3.4 | 16.3 | 30.5 | 4.01% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 17.2 | 30.4 | 4.00% |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 16.9 | 30.1 | 4.00% |
| Dec 8, 2027 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 19.0 | 29.8 | 3.97% |
③ ★ Probability history — Sep 16, 2026 meeting
④ Implied rate path
Other observation dates: 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-08 · 2026-09-07 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-02 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26
Dates are collection dates (KST). Overseas market values may be the previous session's close.